A quick back of the envelope calculation suggests we would have 184,000 dead in the United States right now without relatively early shelter in place efforts across the country.

New York City is the leading COVID-19 hot spot in the United States. New York State already had about 8,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 44 deaths before issuing a shelter in place order on March 20. As of this writing, New York State has had 10,834 confirmed COVID-19 deaths.

New York State’s population is 19,453,561. This means 0.056% of the state has died of COVID-19.

If the rest of United States had a death rate similar to New York State’s, 184,114 would have died so far from COVID-19.

IMHO, it is good that most states locked down relatively early; otherwise, we might have 184,000 deaths instead of just 25,000 deaths right now.